Yes, it must be campaign season. The time of the year when statistics are thrown around with the hope that we get a better feel for the temperature of the contestants.

In the case of AT&T’s proposed acquisition of T-Mobile, recent reports have analysts putting the percentage chance of approval anywhere between 49.5% to 54.7%.

At this stage of the review, where neither Federal Communication Commission members or staff are saying anything about the transaction, it would be pretty difficult to gage the probability that a decision would weigh in one direction or the other about a regulatory decision.

Like these 32 analysts allegedly polled by Stifel Nicolaus & Co., I am not privy to what information the FCC is reviewing much less what the FCC is thinking.

I would say this. A priori, unless one of these analysts can say that, based on legal precedent and our own quantitative analysis, this transaction is dead on arrival, I would place the probability of approval of the transaction between .6 and .7 on a scale of 0 to 1.

Opponents have not provided their own quantitative analysis to refute AT&T’s economic models on price behavior.

I agree with the following quote from The Kansas City Star:

“I don’t read any of the activities as indicating the deal is in trouble,” Larry Downes, a senior adjunct fellow at TechFreedom, a Washington-based policy group, said in an interview. “There is nothing illegal about merging. The burden is on the government not to approve it, not on AT&T.”