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Telling a media company to not buy content is like telling a car company to not buy tires

Earlier today The Wall Street Journal reported that AT&T may close on a deal to buy Time Warner. Time Warner (not to be confused with Time Warner Cable) is a content play with popular properties HBO, CNN, and Warner Bros. in its inventory. AT&T has seen the light flowing from convergence and is rapidly becoming a media company, an exciting move away from being just a broadband access provider.

The boo birds are out, providing the usual “this is bad juju” arguments against a merger should merger talks go just beyond speculation over the weekend. Michael Copps, former member of the Federal Communications Commission, reportedly refers to talks of merger as an action that would result in monopoly power, a power that is “incompatible with democracy.”

Last time I checked, democracy was simply about the masses having the ability to enter a ballot box and choose the lesser of two political evils.  Mr. Copps is conflating a supposed monopoly on content with freedom of expression. If there is a merger, freedom of expression and democracy would not be harmed. To use such arguments is like saying that a car company shouldn’t be allowed to buy a certain tire for its SUVs and refrain from marketing its SUVs as using such tires. AT&T is a media company and should be able to establish an inventory or library of content that reflects its brand. I would argue that it would be undemocratic to stop it from choosing the content that best expresses what type of media company AT&T wants to be,

Besides, there is no monopoly harm here. AT&T won’t get the most out of its content if it does not make it available to as many outlets as possible. Also, the merger doesn’t stop any other content producer or media company from producing and distributing their own branded content.

Content is near infinitesimal in its creation and distribution. This makes the argument of favoritism toward one’s own content ridiculous. What the favoritism argument really indicates that protesters don’t have the talent to compete on quality of content and could do us all a favor by sitting down and taking a chill.

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I don’t see how the FCC set top box policy adds value to content

On 27 October 2016 the Federal Communications Commission will take up the issue of competition in the navigation device or set top box space. The Commission wants to see the video content distribution industry move from requiring subscribers use of set top boxes to the use of free apps to find content. The main driver of the proposed policy, according to the Commission, is subscriber avoidance of onerous set top box fees that allegedly average $231 a year. With today’s app and internet technology, argues the Commission, subscribers should be able to find content without paying navigation device fees.

The process for getting to a decision is driving some content developers bonkers.  According to a report in Broadcasting & Cable, some content developers are concerned about the proposal’s lack of transparency and whether the Commission will play an intrusive oversight role in contracts between content distributors and content programmers.  Contracts lay out terms for compensation and channel placement, items I would think that the Commission should not really be interested in. Rather, the Commission should be interested in whether the telecommunications sector is bringing value to the overall economy. While content creation is ancillary to the sector, without information, data, or knowledge flowing over networks, the network itself loses value.

From the content programmer’s perspective, while concerned with carving out a niche in a competitive content space, the content developer, where he can seize the opportunity, wants to recover as much of a premium as he can from his product. That means cashing in on as much exclusivity as he can. He will do this in two ways. One, produce content that generates traction. Two, make sure that given the traction, he makes the content as exclusive as possible so that he can extract higher rents. Free apps do not meet either of these conditions. Free apps providing you navigation to licensed and unlicensed content eliminates exclusivity. Content competition is increased which drives down the prices content programmers can charge. This leads to lower returns on capital. If returns on capital are seen as too low, no investment is made, no infrastructure deployed, no workers hired.

All this to save $231 a year.

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Caribbean creatives can benefit from zero rating services

Posted October 13th, 2016 in Broadband, capital, content providers, data plans and tagged , , , by Alton Drew

As a native of the Caribbean, my attention has been turning toward global trade in telecommunications markets, primarily between the United States and the Caribbean. While I have a bias toward the English-speaking nations in the Eastern Caribbean having family in that sub-region, and I was born and raised in St.Thomas, it doesn’t mean that I don’t have love for the Spanish, French, and Dutch speaking islands. I just haven’t learned the languages yet. So, paciente, por favor.

Caribbean Export recently published an outlook on Caribbean trade in 2016 and 2017. It takes $500,000 to $2,000,000 for an artist to break into mainstream music markets. Population sizes on smaller island nations force Caribbean music artists to attempt expansion into North American, Asian, and European markets. The survey points out that online streaming is one approach used by artists to sell back catalogs and new music, with 25% of revenues accounted for online. According to Caribbean Export:

“The move to online consumption of music has some significant benefits for emerging artistes.  Online streaming and sales allow the artiste to understand what types of music and artistes are popular in which markets.  This can demonstrate which market may be most relevant for them to target with their music … The Information Technology revolution of the 1990s and the advent of social media have presented a wider reach to artistes today than has ever been possible.  In the age of the Internet, success is possible where an artiste with a quality product can inspire people to share their product, thereby creating millions of impressions. In other words, the sheer accessibility provided by the Internet means that an artiste can release content directly to a global audience, but it is important to stand out.”

The global Caribbean Diaspora numbers approximately 10.7 million with four million of those immigrants living in the United States. Mobile broadband, online streaming and social media can get an artist’s content in front of this audience quickly as discussed before. I believe what can also help is a free data approach combined with other strategic partnership initiatives. For example, where a carrier like Verizon can offer free access to a Caribbean artist website without a subscriber incurring a charge against their data cap, the consumer enjoys the benefit of exposure to new music which may lead to additional sales for the artist. The subscriber is also incentivized to explore other offerings via her smartphones, offerings she hopefully will be willing to pay for.

Another benefit from this type of global trade is the creation of demand for more infrastructure deployment. Increased content and new content delivery systems will need additional fixed line and wireless platforms to run on.

The Caribbean Diaspora should look at advocating for and investing in the development of online streaming for Caribbean artists as a type of remittance program. Greater support for these artists results in greater revenues eventually returning to our homelands with the benefits of infrastructure development both in the Caribbean and here in the United States.

 

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FCC does not recognize the value cable creates for content

Recently the Federal Communications Commission released a plan for increasing the number of ways consumers can navigate video content. The Commission wants cable companies to provide pay television subscribers with a free app that allows the subscriber to access their video content. The Commission believes that at an annual amount of approximately $231 for set top boxes, households are getting hosed and that additional choice is needed in order to reduce this financial burden.

The Commission appears to be ignoring the capital side of set top box equation. No where in his plan does Commission chairman acknowledge the billions cable companies spend on obtaining licensing to programming or creating their own content.  To extract value from this content, cable companies charge consumers a positive premium for using platforms necessary for accessing the content including set top boxes. The Commission is blatantly circumventing the ability of cable companies to extract the value of the content by requiring that cable companies provide consumers with apps that allow the consumer to avoid monthly fees altogether.

The Commission believes it is correcting some type of market failure by providing consumers access to content at a reduced cost, but by interfering with a market transaction, the Commission is creating an environment that sends a false signal to content providers and navigation technology providers. Device makers may think twice about investing resources into developing hardware where the use of free apps freezes the hardware provider out of the market. Small, non-cable affiliated app developers may have second thoughts as well, especially going up against deeper pocketed cable companies or internet portal companies such as Google who can leverage its advertising revenue to provide video navigation apps for free.

In addition, with the requirement that cable companies provide free apps and the expectation that established internet portals will enter the video navigation application market, smaller entrepreneurs will have a harder time accessing capital as investors view their business model as a source of lower returns.

Sending skewed market signals and reducing small app developer access to capital doesn’t make for good video marketplace policy.

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Has net neutrality decision impacted trading in the telecom sector?

Today the United States Court of Appeals-District of Columbia gave the Federal Communications Commission a victory, holding that the agency has the statutory authority to reclassify broadband providers as telecommunications companies as opposed to the industry favored status of information service providers. Broadband providers and their supporters have vowed that the fight is not over, telegraphing the probability of obtaining a ruling from the full bench of the appellate court or, going all the way to the United States Supreme Court.

The telecommunications services sector seemed to have shrugged off the ruling. The Thomson Reuters G7 Telecoms Sector Index registered a .06% decline at the end of the trading day. The sectors biggest players, AT&T and Verizon, saw their stock values increase .47% and .80% respectively. The response is not surprising since broadband operators such as AT&T, Verizon, and Comcast have been providing their high-speed access services pursuant to an open internet philosophy for decades. Their primary argument has been that broadband regulation should be conducted with a light touch and that throttling access speeds or discriminating against certain content or websites would be bad for business given the level of competition that they face.

Wall Street, unlike the Commission, has not been afraid to declare how competitive the telecommunications sector is. Charles Schwab analyst Brad Sorensen had this to say in a recent report about the telecommunications services sector:

“The telecom sector is certainly not what it was a couple of decades ago, although some investors may not realize it yet. The days of near-monopolistic control of landlines are long gone. These days the sector is driven by fierce competition, with new ways of communicating continually entering the market, and consistent—and expensive—upgrade cycles. To us, this reduces the traditional defensive appeal of the telecom sector.”

The court avoided the question of market power and deferred to the Commission’s predictive judgment on telecommunications companies willingness to invest in broadband network deployment. Although the sector has long left the monopoly environment existing prior to the passage of the Telecommunications Act of 1996, should traders consider not only a throwback to the regulatory world of the 1990s that the court’s ruling has cemented but reorganization of the sector that resembles the Ma Bell days?

The 1990s were the pre-convergence days. Carriers followed a silo model separating, in the case of larger local exchange companies, their long distance operations from their local exchange operations. In order to avoid the disruption that may ensure from increased complaints regarding perceived throttling, suspected paid prioritization, and misunderstood network management techniques, what if larger carriers like AT&T and Verizon decided to spin off their newly created “utility” pieces and focused on providing backbone, mid-mile, advertising, content delivery, and special access services? State public utility commissions, long shut out of the broadband regulatory game, may now view the courts ruling as permission to re-enter the regulatory fray.

Spinning off the telecommunications component and leaving them subject to state and federal regulation may allow AT&T, Comcast, and Verizon to focus on the content and data business and go head to head with Google or Facebook, edge providers, who, though subject to the Federal Trade Commission’s privacy regulation, don’t have to suffer the FCC’s Title II regulation.

A spin off may be good for traders especially if the utility components are subject to rate-of-return regulation thus providing the certainty of fixed-income behavior while the unregulated portions, while subject to the volatility of competition, may generate higher rewards that come with the greater risk.

It’s still early and in the immediate term broadband providers will be focused on continued appellate court action. The long term potential restructure stemming from this action is something traders should keep in mind.