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The reality for BDS is increased prices

The Federal Communications Commission, based on a review of its April 2016 order on tariffs and pricing methodology for business data services, doesn’t pay attention to pending decisions of its sister agency, the Federal Reserve. This Friday, Federal Reserve chairman, Janet Yellen, is expected to give a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming that may provide some signals on what the U.S. central bank may decide to do regarding its federal funds rate. The federal funds rate is the overnight rate banks assess each other when lending their reserves to one another.

The Federal Reserve has set a target federal funds rate between .25% and .50% and if there is to be a rate increase this year, it is expected to occur after the November general elections.  Raising rates, the theory goes, is a part of a central bank’s strategy for moderating the growth of a heated economy. Raising overnight rates incentivizes banks to keep their reserves in the Fed’s vaults thus limiting the supply of money. Following the laws of supply and demand, money gets more expensive because banks are lending less to the public.

What does this have to do with telecommunications services, particularly business data services? As a capital intensive industry, telecommunications providers will depend on the bond markets to finance the construction and deployment of facilities necessary for delivering future services. For example, Verizon, in its February 2016 10-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, argues that adverse changes in the credit markets could increase its borrowing costs and access to financing. The company, as of December 2015, has $110 billion in debt. Verizon argues that an inability to retire debt could make it more difficult to access the additional financing necessary for obtaining working capital or making additional capital expenditures.

Placing restrictions on a telecommunications service provider’s ability to raise prices signals the markets that there is increased risk to the rate of return investors expect from selling money to telecommunications providers.  Pricing restrictions by the Commission combined with a Federal Reserve decision to raise the fed funds rate could work to reduce the supply of business data services, an outcome that runs counter to the Commission’s stated public policy of increasing choice for consumers of business data services.

The Commission should take the external economic environment into account, an environment heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve, when it considers going forward on regulating business data services prices.

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Nothing in Wheeler’s Aspen Institute Remarks sparked my investment juices

Posted August 16th, 2016 in Broadband, Federal Communications Commission and tagged , by Alton Drew

Yesterday, Federal Communications Commission chairman Tom Wheeler made remarks to the Aspen Institute. He focused on the evolution and importance of networks as conduits for social and economic growth. As usual his analysis was more consumer-centered than producer centered with no specific discussion of how the Commission would facilitate signals for domestic or foreign direct investment in the telecommunications sector. There was not much to note here at all other than subtle a couple swipes at the GOP mantra of “making America great again.” Mr. Wheeler reminded the audience that America’s greatness didn’t have to be rebooted but was going through continuous evolution.

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FreedomPop applies to FCC to resell services at all international points

On 29 July 2016, STS Media doing business as FreedomPop applied to the Federal Communications Commission to provide resold services from all international points. FreedomPop provides free mobile broadband plans, devices, digital services, and social sharing that allows its subscribers to share data across accounts.

The company was formed in 2011 and counts among its investors Mangrove Capital, DCM, and Atomico. According to its website, the company provides services in the United States and the United Kingdom and plans to roll out services to a dozen more countries this year.

FreedomPop uses Clearwire’s 4G WiMax data network and Sprint’s 4G LTE network.

The California-based start-up has avoided being acquired so far opting instead for raising private capital in a number of rounds. In June of 2015 it was reported that FreedomPop would invest $50 million in raised funds to invest in European and Latin American markets while expanding here in the United States.

STS Media’s application is filed under ITC-214-INTR2016-01757.

 

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The FCC to explore the Spectrum Frontiers

Yesterday Federal Communications Commission chairman Tom Wheeler channeled President John F. Kennedy in his announcement that the Commission will be issuing rules that release additional spectrum for use by 5 G devices and services. The release will also include 14 GHz of unlicensed spectrum. Mr. Wheeler wants to make 5 G a national priority given the role it plays as a platform for the internet of things. Mr. Wheeler did not come to this point overnight or by himself.

Working groups in the private sector have been making regulators aware of the spectrum requirements necessary for deploying effective 5 G networks. For example in August 2015, 4 G Americas, a wireless trade association, released a whitepaper identifying the best spectrum bands for 5 G. The paper makes the following key points:

  • “Mobile spectrum bands below 6 GHz will be valuable to allow the smooth integration of 4 G and 5 G systems.
  • Spectrum bands in the range above 6 GHz will offer technical challenges; however, capabilities for mobile services are possible in the higher band ranges with new radio solutions.
  • A variety of bands are needed to address both coverage and capacity needs of evolved 4G and 5G systems.
    • Lower frequencies have better propagation characteristics for better coverage and thus can support both macro and small cell deployments.
    • Frequencies beyond those traditionally used for cellular systems, especially those above 6 GHz are important to consider.
    • Higher frequencies can support wider bandwidth carriers due to large spectrum availability at millimeter-wave bands for providing very high peak data rates in specific areas where traffic demands are very high.
  • Action is needed by regulators to ensure that new spectrum needs are addressed for the evolution of 4 G and additionally to address the timely introduction of 5 G by identifying new spectrum ranges to be studied in the ITU- Radiocommunication Sector (ITU-R).” (Source: Yahoo! Finance)

The telecommunications services sector was in the positive this morning along with other sectors in the economy so saying that Mr. Wheeler’s announcement moved mountains much less the telecom sector would be a reach.Acting as a monopoly licensor of spectrum, I suspect that wireless companies will be seeking licenses at a premium given the scarcity of the resource. Mr. Wheeler admits that the emerging technology should be driving demand for spectrum. Fortunately in this case he appears willing not to hinder deployment but issuing new rules.

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Has net neutrality decision impacted trading in the telecom sector?

Today the United States Court of Appeals-District of Columbia gave the Federal Communications Commission a victory, holding that the agency has the statutory authority to reclassify broadband providers as telecommunications companies as opposed to the industry favored status of information service providers. Broadband providers and their supporters have vowed that the fight is not over, telegraphing the probability of obtaining a ruling from the full bench of the appellate court or, going all the way to the United States Supreme Court.

The telecommunications services sector seemed to have shrugged off the ruling. The Thomson Reuters G7 Telecoms Sector Index registered a .06% decline at the end of the trading day. The sectors biggest players, AT&T and Verizon, saw their stock values increase .47% and .80% respectively. The response is not surprising since broadband operators such as AT&T, Verizon, and Comcast have been providing their high-speed access services pursuant to an open internet philosophy for decades. Their primary argument has been that broadband regulation should be conducted with a light touch and that throttling access speeds or discriminating against certain content or websites would be bad for business given the level of competition that they face.

Wall Street, unlike the Commission, has not been afraid to declare how competitive the telecommunications sector is. Charles Schwab analyst Brad Sorensen had this to say in a recent report about the telecommunications services sector:

“The telecom sector is certainly not what it was a couple of decades ago, although some investors may not realize it yet. The days of near-monopolistic control of landlines are long gone. These days the sector is driven by fierce competition, with new ways of communicating continually entering the market, and consistent—and expensive—upgrade cycles. To us, this reduces the traditional defensive appeal of the telecom sector.”

The court avoided the question of market power and deferred to the Commission’s predictive judgment on telecommunications companies willingness to invest in broadband network deployment. Although the sector has long left the monopoly environment existing prior to the passage of the Telecommunications Act of 1996, should traders consider not only a throwback to the regulatory world of the 1990s that the court’s ruling has cemented but reorganization of the sector that resembles the Ma Bell days?

The 1990s were the pre-convergence days. Carriers followed a silo model separating, in the case of larger local exchange companies, their long distance operations from their local exchange operations. In order to avoid the disruption that may ensure from increased complaints regarding perceived throttling, suspected paid prioritization, and misunderstood network management techniques, what if larger carriers like AT&T and Verizon decided to spin off their newly created “utility” pieces and focused on providing backbone, mid-mile, advertising, content delivery, and special access services? State public utility commissions, long shut out of the broadband regulatory game, may now view the courts ruling as permission to re-enter the regulatory fray.

Spinning off the telecommunications component and leaving them subject to state and federal regulation may allow AT&T, Comcast, and Verizon to focus on the content and data business and go head to head with Google or Facebook, edge providers, who, though subject to the Federal Trade Commission’s privacy regulation, don’t have to suffer the FCC’s Title II regulation.

A spin off may be good for traders especially if the utility components are subject to rate-of-return regulation thus providing the certainty of fixed-income behavior while the unregulated portions, while subject to the volatility of competition, may generate higher rewards that come with the greater risk.

It’s still early and in the immediate term broadband providers will be focused on continued appellate court action. The long term potential restructure stemming from this action is something traders should keep in mind.