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Losing the Internet global market for the broadband access trees

The New York Stock Exchange Tech-Media-Telecom Index fell 101.46 points or 1.35%, partly on news that the European economy was worse for wear.  Equity investors ran for the debt-income hills choosing to move their stash into government bonds.

I don’t think the fall in the tech, media, telecom sector had much to do with comments made today by panelists participating in a Federal Communications Commission forum on the law and economics of net neutrality.  The takeaway from that panel for most was that no matter what net neutrality rules the FCC comes up with, whether based on Title II, section 706, or some ungodly pairing of the two, there will be blood in the form of litigation.

The other takeaway in my opinion is how so far the FCC has completely ignored the opportunity to describe how regulation, especially under a Title II regime, is supposed to help maintain optimum performance of a globally competitive interconnection of 67,000 networks when a significant portion of the globe is experiencing an inept economic performance.

If economic performance stays this sluggish worldwide, information services companies will have to really emphasize to consumers the value of their content and information products if they are to stay afloat.  But when the FCC is seriously contemplating codifying a policy that would give equal treatment of a video of a dancing cat with life-saving online medical services, it is difficult to see capital and investment moving freely to activity that brings the most value.

Morningstar notes that the FCC’s tough stand on competition and net neutrality has deflated the value of wireless Internet access platform providers, casts doubt on pending acquisitions of DirecTV and Time Warner Cable, and lessens the chances of Sprint and T-Mobile walking hand-in-hand down the mergers and acquisitions aisle.  According to Morningstar, the inability to consolidate may make Sprint and T-Mobile’s ability to garner additional spectrum or eek out a profit all the more difficult.

If the FCC wants to maintain its economic regulation focus on the providers of broadband access platforms while positively impacting the end-to-end global nature of the Internet, it may want to ease up on the “consolidation is bad” mantra and either stick to a broadband policy based on section 706 or better yet abandon rulemaking on the Open Internet altogether.

 

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Google says “We love net neutrality. Why don’t you?”

Google is no longer silent on its position on net neutrality.  It wants to see strong net neutrality, as this blog post in The Washington Post points out.  In fairness to the company, however, it came out of the net neutrality closet to investors a few months earlier based on language in its February 2014 10-K, its annual financial report to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Without using the terms, “net neutrality” or “Open Internet”, here is how Google described how the risk stemming from a lack of an open Internet would impact the company:

“business depends on continued and unimpeded access to the internet by us and our users. Internet access providers may be able to block, degrade, or charge for access to certain of our products and services, which could lead to additional expenses and the loss of users and advertisers.
 
Our products and services depend on the ability of our users to access the internet, and certain of our products require significant bandwidth to work effectively. Currently, this access is provided by companies that have significant market power in the broadband and internet access marketplace, including incumbent telephone companies, cable companies, mobile communications companies, and government-owned service providers.
Some of these providers have taken, or have stated that they may take measures, including legal actions, that could degrade, disrupt, or increase the cost of user access to certain of our products by restricting or prohibiting the use of their infrastructure to support or facilitate our offerings, or by charging increased fees to us or our users to provide our offerings.
Such interference could result in a loss of existing users and advertisers, and increased costs, and could impair our ability to attract new users and advertisers, thereby harming our revenues and growth.”
Google has actually shown it prefers taking action when it comes to net neutrality versus engaging in esoteric debates over an open Internet, as preferred by numerous grassroots advocates.  Back in February 2010 when Google announced its intent to deploy one Gigabit Internet access service, it made clear its intention was “to incorporate the policies we’ve been advocating for in areas like network neutrality and privacy protection.”
If Google Fiber is to have any impact on incumbent broadband operators such as AT&T, Comcast, or Verizon, it may only be in forcing them to upgrade the speeds at which the incumbents provide high-speed access.  By incorporating net neutrality principles in its high-speed service, Google is merely following AT&T, Comcast, and Verizon’s model for complying with net neutrality; they’ve been following net neutrality principles without Google’s help.
I don’t see why the Federal Communications Commission would be moved by Google’s announcement of its position on net neutrality.  If anything the Commission should be asking Google what took you so long to verbalize your support.

 

 

 

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Broadband, capital, and the politics of the ignorant

Broadband is capital that is used by information service providers to produce an information service.  It is the copper, fiber, cable, electronics, and software created, deployed, and used as capital inputs in the production of information services that end-users eventually consume.  By extension the Internet is also an input in the production of information services.  The cables, routers, and servers on the Internet connect over 67,000 global networks making it possible to create and sell information.

By information services, I refer to services that either generate, store, or provide end-user access to content.  This would include broadband access operators such as Verizon or Comcast; router and server providers such as Cisco; back haul providers such as L-1; Internet search engines such as Yahoo or Google; and content providers such as Netflix or Hulu. They all use broadband capacity and the Internet as inputs for the production of information services.

End users or consumers buy information services for final consumption.  They are not using fiber, cable, copper, software, or network electronics to create anything.  They have no property claim or property interest in these components.  Many end-users have no clue as to how these inputs are used much less could define them.  All they know is that they point and click on a link to get their information on current events, gossip, or the recipe for making holiday season rum cakes.

Unfortunately the noise from net neutrality proponents, specifically those pushing Title II regulation of the subset of information services providers known as broadband operators, has obscured this view of broadband as a capital input.  In addition claiming that broadband is a civil right or platform for promoting social justice is also misleading and clouds the discussion.

And the Federal Communications Commission is doing nothing to clear the air on the issue, choosing instead to fan the flames of ignorance surrounding what broadband truly is, a mere input in the production of a service.

The Commission and net neutrality/Title II proponents make this mistake easily because they fail to identify the appropriate market for analysis; the information market.  We develop, deploy, and maintain our communications networks for that sole purpose, to facilitate information exchange.  Because information is a prime component in our knowledge economy, public policy’s main focus should be on how best to promote the deployment of capital so that the exchange of information becomes easier and faster.

Net neutrality/Title II proponents may rebut this line of reasoning by saying that putting into code the principles of transparency of network management, non-discriminatory treatment of content traffic, and no blocking of access to websites of choice based on Title II is the best way to ensure information flows across 67,000 globally interconnected networks.  I beg to differ.

Title II regulation does not address the basic market components of demand and supply for information.  Demand for news, entertainment, and advice drives the supply of information.  A priori, this demand never recedes.  It continually increases.  The economy, in particular the information markets, have created a way to supply increasing demand for information by funding the development and deployment of capital inputs that make accessing and delivering information easier and more efficient.

Title II’s focus is on price regulation and transparency of agreements between network operators.  Title II’s language says nothing about the demand for information services.  Title II does not say anything about encouraging the supply of information services nor does it speak to leveraging of capital inputs to supply services.

Title II’s primary objective is to ensure that in a monopoly market for voice telecommunications that the consumer of voice communications gets a fair and reasonable rate for her voice service and the Commission is aware of all network operators involved in delivering voice services.

Title II is not a public policy tool for the 21st century.  It’s time for the Commission to diffuse the narrative that end users have the right to tell private parties how to leverage capital inputs used for providing a commercial service in a free market.  Diffusing this narrative is easier if the Commission properly describes what broadband and the Internet really are and focus on the true market for analysis: the information markets.

Once the Commission realizes that this is the market that should be promoted and that the private sector has been doing a great job in building the networks necessary for information to flow, maybe then we’ll start moving in the right policy direction.

 

 

Hopefully Verizon’s wireless video service won’t raise a net neutrality stink

The Wall Street Journal yesterday reported that Verizon could create and deploy a digital video service that could rival Netflix or Hulu. Quoting Verizon chief executive officer Lowell McAdam, the Journal reported “the carrier has much of the technology ready to launch the service and is nearing agreements with major content companies, which until recently were more skeptical of licensing content for delivery over the Internet.  The need to connect with millennials who want to view TV shows and movies over the Internet is changing the tone of the discussions.”

The Journal also reported that Verizon has been receiving an increasingly warm attitude from content providers to the idea of supplying content for over the Internet consumption.

Content would be delivered from major broadcasters and live sporting events to smartphones via a technology called “multicasting.”  Muticasting avoids congesting the network because it allows the carrier to broadcast content over a single stream of airwaves that consumers can tune into.

In addition, the Journal reports that Verizon is open to expanding FiOS into more markets.

Net neutrality advocates may decide to raise red flags and voice concerns about Verizon potentially throttling the speed of a Netflix or Hulu in order to better promote the mobile broadband provider’s own video service.

The view may be buttressed by allegations made earlier this summer that Verizon was throttling Netflix’s speed and that this throttling forced Netflix to enter an agreement with Verizon that ironically provide Netflix’s video service.

Even without rules in place, the Commission may attempt to use the authority it has under section 706 of the Telecommunications Act of 1996 to investigate claims that net neutrality principles were violated.

In the end investors should view this potential regulatory overhang as a speed bump down the road toward competition in the video-over-the-internet market.

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No response to Wheeler’s response on wireless

There was no appreciable response to Federal Communications Commission chairman Tom Wheeler’s comments at the CTIA show in Las Vegas mentioning that the FCC may reconsider the distinction between fixed broadband and wireless broadband as it draws closer to issuing new rules on net neutrality or the Open Internet.

The goal of the Open Internet proceedings “is to establish rules of the road for Internet openness that will provide certainty in the market place and facilitate the continuation of the virtuous cycle of investment and innovation”, Mr. Wheeler said.

Consumers are increasingly relying on mobile broadband, noted the chairman, and acknowledged the wireless industry’s position that mobile broadband carriers face constraints that their fixed broadband cousins do not.

AT&T(T:NYSE); Sprint (S: NYSE); and Verizon (VZ: NYSE) saw their share values fall today but it wasn’t clear from media headlines whether the fall was in response to the possibility that fixed and mobile may be treated the same under net neutrality rules or his policy of challenging wireless broadband company mergers such as the attempted AT&T-T-Mobile combination or the more recent attempt by Sprint to acquire T-Mobile.