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Haven’t seen an argument for Title II regulation increasing the output of information services

According to the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis, information services, which includes telecommunications and broadcast services, saw its contribution to gross domestic product increase 10.6% in the fourth quarter of 2015. That was a big jump from the .4% increase in contribution to GDP in the third quarter of 2015. According to the BEA, fourth quarter growth primarily reflected increases in telecommunications and broadcast.

While real gross output increased just 1.4% for the United States in fourth quarter 2015, the information services sector saw its real gross output increase by 10.8% in the fourth quarter of 2015.  For all of 2015, real gross domestic product for the United States increased by 2.4%, but for the information services sector alone, gross domestic product increased 6.3% for 2015.

Proponents of Title II common carrier regulation and open internet rules have not given their preferred regulatory framework any credit for the performance of the information services sector. For example, a review of Federal Communications Commission chairman Tom Wheeler’s blog posts and statements at the time BEA released its report in April 2016 reveals no reference to the information services sector’s contribution to GDP. In a March 2016 blog post. Mr. Wheeler acknowledged the negative impact rate regulation could have on innovation and investment:

“But the 1996 Act did not change the basic economics of building and running large communications networks.   Whether they are wireless or fixed, operating these networks is a capital-intensive undertaking.   It requires the purchase of expensive inputs like spectrum, optical fiber, and radio antennae, plus the additional administrative and legal expenses of deploying these resources in the cities, towns and rural communities where network users live and work.  While the FCC has taken many steps over the years and is still working to promote competition among network service providers, the fact remains that the financial barriers to building these networks are formidable, and most American consumers have few or no choices when it comes to this service.   Our most recent Broadband Progress Report, for example, found that only 38 percent of Americans have more than one option for fixed advanced telecommunications technology.

One of the biggest challenges I have confronted in my time at the Commission is facing down the false choice between investment and openness.  I believe our Open Internet Order took the right approach, by protecting entrepreneurs and small businesses’ free and open access to the Internet, while also forbearing from sections of Title II like rate regulation and unbundling that might reduce network owners’ incentives to continue building out their networks and investing in new technologies like 5G.”

If Mr. Wheeler believes that forbearance from rate regulation will provide incentives for continued investment in broadband networks, then investors should expect continued positive growth in the integrated telecommunications services industry which has seen market value increase 2.69% over the past year, just as long as Mr. Wheeler keeps his word. I don’t believe Mr. Wheeler has any incentive to go back on his word to forbear. To do so would put the final dagger in the heart of the initiative to apply Title II to broadband providers and prove the anti-Title II constituency’s argument that Title II is bad for growth and investment.

So while we haven’t seen an argument that Title II regulation is responsible for information services positive contribution to growth, I wouldn’t expect to see one any time in the near future.

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One end game for broadband adoption: digital currency

The message for broadband adoption is incomplete because there is nary any mention of how adopting broadband aids capital accumulation or deployment for the consumer. I talked last week about how the only thing that slowed down capital expenditure by broadband providers is an economic slowdown. But what inroads on the consumer side should we see at the intersection of capital and broadband?

One intersection I find appealing is digital currency.  Digital currency allows users to exchange online credits for goods and services. Digital currency exchange may involve the use of a mobile app or can be conducted from a computer. With the use of a digital wallet, digital currency can be sent to or received by a consumer.

Transactions are made with no middlemen. International transactions are cheap and are currently not subject to regulation although governments are concerned about taxation and the lack of control over the currency. These concerns conflict directly with the philosophy underlying the development of digital currency; to take power out of the hands of the government and central bankers, a philosophy I believe that is much in keeping with the freedom and openness of the internet. With talk of central banks considering the issuance of digital currency, I’m concerned that the speed and freedom of transactions stemming from the use of digital currency like Bitcoin would be lost.

Digital or more accurately cryptocurrencies offer an alternative medium of exchange especially for communities underserved by traditional mediums of capital exchange. With a computer a consumer could “mine” her own currency, enter into markets where it is accepted and purchase goods and services in those markets. As more goods and services are purchased in digital exchanges with digital currency, not only will the value of the digital currency increase but so to will the value of the broadband networks that sustain these exchanges. More consumers would have incentive to get on board with broadband as broadband and digital currencies combine to give consumers increased access to local, regional, national, and global markets.

 

 

 

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Any regulation of zero rating is unnecessary market interference

Members of the wireless industry got together yesterday in Washington, D.C. to debate what the Federal Communications Commission’s next move on zero rating ought not to be. Inside Sources reported that the wireless confab included T-Mobile, Verizon, Facebook, and other parties. Zero rating allows wireless services subscribers to access certain content providers without that access being charged against the consumer’s data plan. T-Mobile’s “Binge-On” service is a recently deployed example of this type of service.

Pro-net neutrality groups like Free Press, Public Knowledge, and the Electronic Frontier Foundation believe that zero rating violates the Commission’s open internet order by throttling data streams while favoring certain content providers over other providers.  For example, under 47 CFR 8.7, a person engaged in the provision of broadband internet access service shall not impair or degrade lawful internet traffic on the basis of internet content, application or service, or use of a non-harmful device, subject to reasonable network management.

One issue will be whether a service like “Binge-On” actually throttles traffic pursuant to this rule. The Commission so far has opted to a light touch approach to zero rating-type services, which wireless carriers have likened to 800-number services where the 800-number customer or its telephone service provider ate the cost of a long distance call from a customer. The Commission should find that there is no throttling because treatment of data traffic will be the same for all content providers, whether access to their content is done via “Binge-On” or not. The Commission’s political constraints go beyond the letter of their rules.

The Commission has been fervent about its clear and fair “rules of the road”; that all traffic be treated equally, that it may not want to rock the boat with the pro-net neutrality posse or their alleged four million post-card writing supporters. There is a chance that the Commission may opt for the safety of saying no to “Binge-On” with the claim that its best to err on the side of caution and avoid having its net neutrality rules go sliding down a slippery slope.

A call against “Binge-On” and other zero rating services is a strike against investor interests especially for investors in smaller carriers like T-Mobile. If T-Mobile is to acquire more market share it will do so with bolder offerings like “Binge-On.” The service appears to be an effective way for promoting the company’s other offerings, so much so that T-Mobile is finding that some customers, having had free access to participating websites are opting for additional and more expensive service. If there is an opportunity for government to show how anti-investor some policies can be, treating zero rating as anti-net neutrality would be one of them.

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Democrats plan to counter GOP attempts at defunding net neutrality

Senator Ed Markey, Democrat of Massachusetts, and Senator Al Franken, Democrat of Minnesota, will like to thwart their Republican colleagues attempts at reducing the amount of money the Federal Communications Commission will have to enforce net neutrality.  Mr. Markey wants to organize enough Democrats in the Senate to block a rider in the GOP appropriations bill that would make it harder for the FCC to enforce the new rules.

From a capital flow perspective, some investor advocates argue that the wrong net neutrality regulatory framework may disadvantage start-ups who do not have the deep pockets of incumbents.  For example, paid prioritization has been cited by the National Venture Capital Association as an example of how larger, well financed firms can leverage their advantages stemming from their greater access to capital.

But as Harold Furchtgott-Roth argues in a piece for Forbes Magazine, capital expenditure growth in the information sector has been sub-par when compared with capital expenditures in the rest of the economy.  Between 2010 and 2013, capital expenditures in the information sector grew at an annual rate of 8.2% while capital expenditures in the remainder of the economy grew at 10.7%.

But if paid prioritization is the primary concern of venture capitalists like Marc Andreesen, their fears could be partially allayed by Republican willing to meet Democrats half-way by codifying in legislation net neutrality principles of no paid prioritization, no throttling, and no favoring of particular websites over other sites.  If the paid prioritization concern can be put to rest by legislation, then maybe a budget fight (which the Democrats will lose) or the pending lawsuit against the FCC in the federal court of appeals can be terminated.

Congress should not fund a FCC with misplaced priorities

Free Press has been calling on its constituents to encourage the Republican-controlled Congress to vote against a House appropriations bill that would significantly reduce funding for the Federal Communications Commission.  For Fiscal Year 2016, the FCC asked Congress for $388,000,000 in offsetting collections. This represents a $48 million increase over the FCC’s request for Fiscal Year 2015, which ends tonight at midnight.

House Republicans have been blatant about their unwillingness to fund the FCC’s net neutrality regime.  So serious are they about taking the wind out of the so called open internet that they have a budget bill that would provide the FCC with only $314,844,000 for Fiscal Year 2016.  If federal budgets represent national priorities, it is clear that net neutrality is not a priority for the GOP, whose members have railed against how onerous the rules are.

While the rules are burdensome, what is more telling is the FCC’s unwillingness to get out of the narrow vision box.  The FCC is still stuck on the concept of encouraging competitive telecommunications networks.  In the 21st century why would the FCC be concerned about a concept calling for a multiple number of firms providing point-to-point voice communications services via wire or wireline?

What the FCC should be concerned about is promoting the development of the information and data markets that are being created and transacted in over internet infrastructure.   Information and data are the currency being exchanged on digital networks.  Also the returns on stock that investors are seeing should be an indication as to where the economy via the internet is going.

According to data from Morningstar, the telecom services industry saw one-year returns on stock at 8.42%.  Three-year returns were 9.82% while five-year returns were at 9.64%.

In the information technology services industry, one-year returns amounted to 10.93%; three-year returns came in at 10.41%; and five-year returns were 12.16%.

The internet content and information industry saw first-year returns of 17.04%; three-year returns of 23.90%; and five-year returns on 18.70%.

I don’t pretend to be a stock analyst but if the FCC really wants to encourage competition on the internet, shouldn’t the agency promote entry into the higher performing industries?  If the FCC wants to convince me that they are interested in economic growth, their analysis should be based on the current reality of the internet economy and the data and information markets.