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Telling a media company to not buy content is like telling a car company to not buy tires

Earlier today The Wall Street Journal reported that AT&T may close on a deal to buy Time Warner. Time Warner (not to be confused with Time Warner Cable) is a content play with popular properties HBO, CNN, and Warner Bros. in its inventory. AT&T has seen the light flowing from convergence and is rapidly becoming a media company, an exciting move away from being just a broadband access provider.

The boo birds are out, providing the usual “this is bad juju” arguments against a merger should merger talks go just beyond speculation over the weekend. Michael Copps, former member of the Federal Communications Commission, reportedly refers to talks of merger as an action that would result in monopoly power, a power that is “incompatible with democracy.”

Last time I checked, democracy was simply about the masses having the ability to enter a ballot box and choose the lesser of two political evils.  Mr. Copps is conflating a supposed monopoly on content with freedom of expression. If there is a merger, freedom of expression and democracy would not be harmed. To use such arguments is like saying that a car company shouldn’t be allowed to buy a certain tire for its SUVs and refrain from marketing its SUVs as using such tires. AT&T is a media company and should be able to establish an inventory or library of content that reflects its brand. I would argue that it would be undemocratic to stop it from choosing the content that best expresses what type of media company AT&T wants to be,

Besides, there is no monopoly harm here. AT&T won’t get the most out of its content if it does not make it available to as many outlets as possible. Also, the merger doesn’t stop any other content producer or media company from producing and distributing their own branded content.

Content is near infinitesimal in its creation and distribution. This makes the argument of favoritism toward one’s own content ridiculous. What the favoritism argument really indicates that protesters don’t have the talent to compete on quality of content and could do us all a favor by sitting down and taking a chill.

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Trump, walls, trade in telecom services, and NAFTA

Posted July 21st, 2016 in AT&T, Donald Trump, Election 2016, NAFTA and tagged , , by Alton Drew

According to the World Trade Organization, global trade in telecommunications services accounts for $1.5 trillion in revenues.  Trade in telecommunications services includes entrance of new telecommunications companies, foreign direct investment, and the cross-border transmission of telecommunications services.  Donald Trump would like to build a wall around some of that trade, specifically the trade between Mexico and the United States promoted in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA or Agreement). I don’t think that is a good idea simply because it reduces the availability of additional choice of telecommunications providers and restricts the flow via foreign direct investment of additional capital that a fledgling telecom may need. Calling for a tearing up of NAFTA also shows Mr. Trump’s ignorance when it comes to global capital markets.

Take for example the Mexico-based telecom America Movil SAB de CV. America Movil is a beast, controlling 70% of Mexico’s wireless and internet access market, according to Morningstar strategist Michael Hodel. This market dominance is a red flag to Mexican regulators who have promulgated rules designed to reign in America Movil. Rules changes have provided United States-based AT&T an opening to enter the Mexican market, but it is expected that AT&T will have a tough go at profitability as it seeks to navigate the Mexican market.

NAFTA provides AT&T some help. Chapter 13 of NAFTA addresses access to public telecommunications transport networks by persons, broadcast station operators, cable system operators, or operators of private networks. Under Article 1302, AT&T is able to purchase, lease, and attach equipment to Mexico’s public telecommunications transport networks. AT&T can also interconnect its private networks to Mexico’s public telecommunications transport networks either from in the United States or from within Mexico. NAFTA, combined with changes in Mexican law, can be good for American telecommunications firms.

While NAFTA does not speak directly to listing of shares of corresponding stock exchanges, America Movil lists its American Depository Receipts on the New York Stock Exchange. ADRs are negotiable certificates issued by a U.S. bank representing a specified number of shares in a foreign stock traded on a U.S. exchange. If access to Mexican markets by American firms were curtailed as a result of tearing up NAFTA, the only beneficiaries north of the Rio Grande would be holders of ADRs or other securities issued by Mexican-based firms because their revenues would be left unchallenged.

If Mr. Trump is concerned about increases on return to American capital or increases in American jobs as he claims, tearing up NAFTA would be the wrong approach.

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AT&T makes another media play

Posted May 16th, 2016 in AT&T, media and tagged , , by Alton Drew

AT&T today announced that it will acquire Quickplay Media Inc., as part of its plan to support streaming of DirecTV content over any device. AT&T already has an existing relationship with Quickplay. The company provides the platform for AT&T U-verse TV. Subject to a pre-merger review, the acquisition is expected to close in mid 2016.

The acquisition provides another example of convergence 2.0 as legacy companies such as AT&T and Verizon take their infrastructure to a media level.

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How Congress and the FCC can avoid future Section 257 proceedings

On 25 March 2016, the Federal Communications Commission circulated an item regarding a Section 257 market entry barriers proceeding. The purpose of the proceeding is to prepare and distribute a report to Congress detailing regulatory barriers to entry faced by telecommunications and information service providers. The Commission is also expected to promote policies that favor diversity of media voices, vigorous economic competition, and technological advancement.

I think the biggest barrier to information services providers is not a bunch of rules or the Communications Act itself. It is the philosophy behind describing information services; a philosophy that is still silo-based; that separates broadband access providers from websites, information portals, and search engines. All these platforms have the exchange, gathering, repackaging, and sale of data or information in common and it is time that the Commission recognize this basic characteristic of the digital jungle.

The anti-ISP posse will argue that firms like Verizon and AT&T should not be viewed as mere information service providers because they also sell access services; that content providers and consumers rely on these gateways to access information. The anti-ISP posse have a very limited point when they distinguish Verizon or AT&T from other information services based on their access services. The New York Times, an online digital content provider, may be able to hire delivery boys but it won’t shell out billions for deploying networks just to deliver one publication to their subscribers. Paying last mile, mid-mile, or content delivery networks is more economically feasible for them to get their content out. But if we treated the information markets as an exchange, I believe there is an opportunity to create a model that increases opportunities for smaller content providers while getting the Commission and probably Congress out of the business of trying to make the information markets efficient.

Congress and the Commission should explore a blended exchange/independent system operator model for internet service providers. ISPs trade on information. The information markets in this blended model would be coordinated by a “central ISP”, similar to the regional transmission or independent system operators found in the electricity markets. Carriers, such as AT&T or Verizon, would voluntarily turn over functional control of their networks to this central ISP. In order to trade on this central ISP platform, information service providers such as Facebook, Hulu, Amazon, Google, etc., would buy seats on the central ISP’s exchange, similar to a stock market exchange. As a member, the information service provider would have a say in how the exchange is managed. As long as the information service provider has the annual fee to get a seat or membership, they must be allowed to join.

Yes, I hear your next question. “But what about the lone blogger who wants to get his content out there or the start-up information service provider who can’t afford a seat?” My first response would be “value.”  My second response would be, “tough nookies.”

ISPs are looking for content of great value. Smaller content providers will have to step up their game and demonstrate to ISPs that their content should be added to the ISPs portfolio of video and text goodies. And if a content provider cannot demonstrate this value, then tough. The content provider will have to either find another way to distribute content digitally or accept that the digital content world isn’t ready for her…yet.

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The FCC should pay attention to the overall economy

Posted January 21st, 2016 in AT&T, Broadband, capital, economy, Verizon, Wall Street and tagged , , , , by Alton Drew

Yesterday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, AT&T chief executive officer Randall Stephenson shared with The Wall Street Journal his opinion on economic growth. Mr. Stephenson shared that he is not optimistic about growth in the economy. Expected growth of two percent is unacceptable, according to Mr. Stephenson. Tax policy changes are needed but there is no expectation that there will be any fiscal action this year.  Without fiscal action there is the potential of more downside than upside.

Mr. Stephenson added that lower oil prices were expected to lead to increased consumer spending but that has not panned out because consumers have been price conscious about mobile services. Discounts as  little as ten dollars could prompt a consumer to change mobile carriers.

There has been little if any evidence that the Federal Communications Commission is taking into account the state of the economy and its impact on consumer demand for broadband services. In comments before the Brookings Institution, FCC chairman Tom Wheeler argued that the success of broadband services leads to increases in demand for broadband which increases the incentive for competitive broadband.

Mr. Wheeler might not buy AT&T’s argument that lack of national economic growth is constraining carriers like AT&T. Mr. Wheeler believes that 75% of AT&T’s network will be controlled software by 2020. The replacement of hard physical switching systems by software is expected to reduce Verizon’s real estate costs by 80%, according to Mr. Wheeler. Powering a few computers can save up to 60% of energy costs versus endless hard switches, according to Mr. Wheeler. As the cost of delivering broadband goes down, says Mr. Wheeler, the opportunities for innovation increase. “This means we’re not going to let imaginary concerns about investment incentives and utility regulation cause us to let up on policies to encourage fast, fair, and open broadband.”

If the concerns are imaginary then maybe equity analysts are sleep deprived. We shared in a 28 December 2015 post that analysts believed that the wireless industry participated in a competitive market. The large wireless service companies are subject to pricing squeezes brought on by smaller entrants, analysts found, and extremely high prices for spectrum were further compounding pricing squeezes.

The reality of market concerns are further highlighted when one considers how much the information sector impacts gross domestic product. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the information services portion of the economy has been playing an increasing role over the last three years. Information represented 9.3% of gross domestic product in 2013. By 2014 this percentage increased to 9.5%. At the end of the third quarter in 2015 the percentage has climbed to 9.6%.

Given Wall Street’s assessment of wireless markets and the impact information services plays on the overall economy, the FCC should look beyond the switch to software-based communications infrastructure when ascertaining the competitiveness.