Today AT&T withdrew it’s bid to purchase T-Mobile deciding instead to take a $4 billion charge off. I expect T-Mobile to
eventually fade away into the Bavarian sunset unless it finds a way to build out a true 4G network and remain competitive
with AT&T and Verizon. While opponents to the transaction begin their holiday season on a high note, next year may not be that grand for T-Mobile’s new subscribers.
I expect rates to go up as a result of the Obama Administration’s preference for populism as opposed to good old fashioned
economics. Obviously the Justice Department does not read the U.S. Department of Labor’s jobs report. Some 315,000 people left the labor force in November. Unemployment for Blacks and Hispanics exceed the national average. These are the same consumers that subscribe to T-Mobile’s services. As the economy continues to flat line, more consumers seeking to offset long term unemployment by reducing household bills will gravitate to T-Mobile’s offerings.
The problem is that given T-Mobile’s smaller network, it will have to increase prices or curtail its services in order to meet the increasing demand. Just as prices are going up and quality of services are falling, a credit constrained parent, Duetsche Telekom, may decide to pull out of the U.S. market. Don’t know if the Justice Department knows this, but things aren’t so hot in Europe right now.
Should the Europeans decide to shore up their central banks with more capital, we may see rates climbing in Europe which will make getting financing even tougher for Deutsche Telekom.
For all its talk about global competitiveness, the Obama Admonistration appears to have dropped the ball on understanding
the meaning and impact of a global economy.