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The FCC needs to change its mindset about capital and Title II

The politics of Washington is not commensurate with capital flow when it concerns broadband investment.  The Federal Communications Commission’s decision to apply Title II common carrier rules has resulted in a decrease in capital expenditures.

It has been reported that during the first half of 2015, AT&T saw a decrease in capital expenditures of 29% relative to 2014.  Charter Communications also saw a decline of 29% relative to 2014 while Cablevision saw capital expenditures fall off by 10% versus last year. CenturyLink was down nine percent while Verizon saw a fall in capex of four percent.

The politics pushing the FCC toward their anti-capital decision was driven by a grass roots group argument that freedom of expression was being challenged by the potential bottlenecks that broadband providers could create.  With narratives that included claims that consumers would not be able to create content on the internet or access the content of their choice, at least the three Democratic FCC members fell sway to it.

Edge providers, like Netflix, also played the “threat to democracy” card, arguing that broadband access providers , via paid prioritization, would discriminate among content providers and deny consumers access to their content.  Netflix, however, has been able to hedge its political bets by paying some of these broadband providers for fast lanes so that video traffic to its subscribers is not congested.

Now the political center of gravity lies in the Congress, at least this week, as the House committee on energy and commerce takes a look at how Title II common carrier treatment of broadband will impact investment.  Given Republican control of the committee, it’s no surprise that the committee’s leadership sees Title II as a burden on investment.  For example, the committee’s majority takes issue with the FCC’s finding that the total annual cost on all broadband providers for complying with the application of the FCC’s Title II rules would be approximately $700,000.  The majority believes the annual cost of compliance could be as much as $52 million.

Having supervised a tariff shop for a state regulator and drafting and filing tariffs as a staff attorney for a law firm, I can assure you that the cost of complying with Title II rules will well exceed the $6.95 per hour that the FCC estimates.  We are not talking flipping burgers here.

Politically, reversing the impact Title II regulation will have on broadband investment is out of the hands of Congress, at least in the short term.  Should a Republican win the White House in 2016 and the GOP maintain control of both chambers of Congress, then investors should expect a new FCC Republican majority to repeal the rules.

A repeal by the Republicans could be moot should the United States Court of Appeals-District of Columbia find that the rules have no statutory basis or that the FCC has not shown why its earlier treatment of broadband as an information service should be abandoned.

The probabilities of a court decision or an election outcome in favor of broadband providers is difficult to calculate but the likelihood of the FCC or the Obama administration changing its mindset about Title II’s impact on capital flows to broadband is definitely zero.  Both the President and the FCC’s three Democrats have invested too much political capital in steering the wrong course.

Congress should not fund a FCC with misplaced priorities

Free Press has been calling on its constituents to encourage the Republican-controlled Congress to vote against a House appropriations bill that would significantly reduce funding for the Federal Communications Commission.  For Fiscal Year 2016, the FCC asked Congress for $388,000,000 in offsetting collections. This represents a $48 million increase over the FCC’s request for Fiscal Year 2015, which ends tonight at midnight.

House Republicans have been blatant about their unwillingness to fund the FCC’s net neutrality regime.  So serious are they about taking the wind out of the so called open internet that they have a budget bill that would provide the FCC with only $314,844,000 for Fiscal Year 2016.  If federal budgets represent national priorities, it is clear that net neutrality is not a priority for the GOP, whose members have railed against how onerous the rules are.

While the rules are burdensome, what is more telling is the FCC’s unwillingness to get out of the narrow vision box.  The FCC is still stuck on the concept of encouraging competitive telecommunications networks.  In the 21st century why would the FCC be concerned about a concept calling for a multiple number of firms providing point-to-point voice communications services via wire or wireline?

What the FCC should be concerned about is promoting the development of the information and data markets that are being created and transacted in over internet infrastructure.   Information and data are the currency being exchanged on digital networks.  Also the returns on stock that investors are seeing should be an indication as to where the economy via the internet is going.

According to data from Morningstar, the telecom services industry saw one-year returns on stock at 8.42%.  Three-year returns were 9.82% while five-year returns were at 9.64%.

In the information technology services industry, one-year returns amounted to 10.93%; three-year returns came in at 10.41%; and five-year returns were 12.16%.

The internet content and information industry saw first-year returns of 17.04%; three-year returns of 23.90%; and five-year returns on 18.70%.

I don’t pretend to be a stock analyst but if the FCC really wants to encourage competition on the internet, shouldn’t the agency promote entry into the higher performing industries?  If the FCC wants to convince me that they are interested in economic growth, their analysis should be based on the current reality of the internet economy and the data and information markets.

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As the Fall begins, data broker, ISP investors should keep ears open for new rules

Posted September 23rd, 2015 in data brokers and tagged , , , by Alton Drew

This MediaPost.com article discusses the possibility of the Federal Communications Commission writing a privacy rule component for its net neutrality rules.  The FCC may consider the issue of “super cookies”, a technology that allows a broadband provider to inject unique code into a consumer’s mobile traffic; and whether internet service providers should be able to price discriminate between consumers who allow data to be shared and those who don’t.

FCC chairman Tom Wheeler, according to the article, is considering rules for issue this fall. So far the FCC has not issued any notices for proposed rule making or an inquiry seeking comments.

Investors in data brokers should stay abreast of additions to net neutrality rules.  Internet service providers will like to enhance their ability to collect and distribute consumer data to data brokers with the use of techniques like deep packet inspection.  The FCC did not address deep packet inspection in great depth during the promulgation of its net neutrality rules. Net neutrality rule language doesn’t refer to deep packet inspection but given consumer privacy concerns raised by advocacy groups, this technique may not stay on the back burner for long.

And while the Federal Trade Commission has been at the forefront of probing data brokers, including a recommendation to Congress that legislation regulating the collection of data be drafted, the FTC itself has not come out with any new rules.

 

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How can the FCC help expand the broadband economy

Yesterday Michael O’Rielly provided a definition of the internet economy during remarks made before the Internet Innovation Alliance.

“Here is a simple truth.  The Internet thrives today on aggregating information for the purposes of increasing advertising revenues and the use of data analysis for multiple purposes.  Data and advertising are why Internet-related companies are valued so highly by investors and Wall Street, and why those companies that cannot monetize such activities face harsh realities and uncertain futures.”

In other words, regulators need to understand that the commercial internet is an infrastructure that facilitates data trade and that the regulations they implement can limit the type of data collected over the internet by internet-related companies.  Broadband operators are involved in this data trade.  For example, Comcast collects non-personally identifiable data that they may share with third-parties for the purpose of targeting advertisement.  This non-personally identifiable data may include IP and HTTP header information; a consumer’s device address; a consumer’s web browser; or a consumer’s operating system when using Comcast’s web services.  Where a Comcast subscriber is trying to personalize the use of Comcast’s web services, the consumer may provide to the broadband provider for storage the consumer’s zip code, age, or gender information.

The competition that gets ignored by regulators is the competition broadband providers face in the capture and sale of consumer data.  This competition includes cloud storage companies, content creators, and app developers.  It also includes companies in the internet, publishing, and broadcasting industry with familiar names like Facebook, Google, and Yahoo. According to Hoover’s, these companies publish content online or operate websites that guide information consumers to the content they are seeking.

Demand for this industry’s services is driven by consumer or business needs for information and other forms of content. Profit is created when these companies deliver relevant information to consumers while offering advertisers a targeted audience.  According to Hoover’s, sales of online advertisements account for just over half of U.S. industry revenue with 75% of advertising revenue coming from search and display advertising formats.

Comcast was hoping to make major inroads into advertising with its proposed acquisition of Time Warner.  Writing for Adage.com in February 2014, Jeanine Poggi wrote:

“Assuming the deal is approved, however, it will make Comcast become a more important partner for advertisers, said Ken Doctor, affiliate analyst, Outsell. Its expanded role as both a content producer and content distributor will make it all the more competitive for ad dollars with companies like Yahoo, AOLGoogle, and Facebook. “It will become more of an ad competitor as selling of TV [and] digital inventory blurs,” he said.”

Writing further, Ms. Poggi points out that:

“A merged Comcast reaching 30 million U.S. households, along with the national reach of DirecTV and Dish Network, creates an alternative to buying national advertising from the TV networks, said Jason Kanefsky, exec VP-strategic investments, Havas Media.”

Unfortunately for Comcast investors, the Federal Communications Commission and the U.S. Department of Justice bought into the pseudo net neutrality argument pushed by grassroots groups and Netflix that mergers such as Comcast and Time Warner would somehow thwart the average man’s ability to express themselves online and that a larger Comcast would be a detriment to competition in broadband access.  Allowing the merger it appears would have given advertisers, from large corporations to small entrepreneurs, alternatives for online advertising.  The economies of scale that a Comcast-Time Warner marriage would have produced may have lead to lower advertising rates especially for smaller companies.  The FCC’s new Title II rules for broadband companies may only serve to further foreclose such scale.

The issue is, under the current rules and statutes, should broadband providers be prohibited for sharing data with advertisers or other third-parties seeking to target ads at a broadband provider’s subscribers?  I believe the answer is no and investors should lobby the FCC to ensure that no such rules are drafted.

47 CFR 8 of the FCC’s rules for protecting the open internet provides no explicit prohibition on a broadband operator providing third-parties with subscriber data that could be used to deliver advertisement.  Section 8.11 of the rules, in my opinion, gives broadband operators an argument for providing customer data to third-parties, particularly edge providers.  Specifically, the rule says:

“Any person engaged in the provision of broadband Internet access service, insofar as such person is so engaged, shall not unreasonably interfere with or unreasonably disadvantage end users’ ability to select, access, and use broadband Internet access service or the lawful Internet content, applications, services, or devices of their choice, or edge providers’ ability to make lawful content, applications, services, or devices available to end users. Reasonable network management shall not be considered a violation of this rule.”

Section 222 of the Communications Act does not expressly prohibit use of consumer information for advertising purposes, but given that the statute is written for telecommunications companies, Congressional action would be needed to amend the section with language that reflects how broadband and other internet companies use consumer information.

If the FCC wants to help expand the broadband economy, it will have to persuade Congress to make these language changes lest leave investors in a state of uncertainty.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Is FCC net neutrality policy forcing investors to play broadband providers off of video streaming services?

Do we regulate vans when used to deliver newspapers to grocery stores or pharmacies?  Do we ask grocery stores or pharmacies to disclose the contracts they enter into for displaying The Wall Street Journal or People Magazine on their shelves?  Renting a van to deliver magazines or striking placement deals with grocery stores and pharmacies is the cost of doing business that magazines and newspapers incur when distributing their product and I don’t see why online content providers like Netflix should avoid the same costs of business under a disingenous practice of open internet or net neutrality.

The Federal Communications Commission so far has successfully skirted this argument, having phrased net neutrality as a consumer’s rights issue versus what it truly is: a cost-of-doing business issue for content providers who would rather not pay Comcast, Verizon, or Time Warner a fee to interconnect opting instead for a “bill and keep” scenario.  But like any other media company, Netflix, Hulu, or Amazon should be responsible for putting together their own content production and distribution network.

On the content side these companies will hire their own staff to create content in-house or hire a production company to provide them a set amount of programming.  They will, in the case of movies or television, pay licensing fees that enable them to re-broadcast a television or theatrical production.

The distribution side is trickier.  Netflix depends on mid-mile providers like Cogent and last mile providers like Comcast to connect their content to final end-users or consumers.  To keep these distribution costs low, Netflix would prefer to interconnect at no costs with last-mile providers. In its latest 10-K report filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Netflix describes risks related to its relationship with last-mile providers:

“We rely upon the ability of consumers to access our service through the Internet. To the extent that network operators implement usage based pricing, including meaningful bandwidth caps, or otherwise try to monetize access to their networks by data providers, we could incur greater operating expenses and our member acquisition and retention could be negatively impacted. Furthermore, to the extent network operators create tiers of Internet access service and either charge us for or prohibit us from being available through these tiers, our business could be negatively impacted.
Most network operators that provide consumers with access to the Internet also provide these consumers with multichannel video programming. As such, many network operators have an incentive to use their network infrastructure in a manner adverse to our continued growth and success. For example, Comcast exempted certain of its own Internet video traffic (e.g., Streampix videos to the Xbox 360) from a bandwidth cap that applies to all unaffiliated Internet video traffic (e.g., Netflix videos to the Xbox 360).
While we believe that consumer demand, regulatory oversight and competition will help check these incentives, to the extent that network operators are able to provide preferential treatment to their data as opposed to ours or otherwise implement discriminatory network management practices, our business could be negatively impacted. In some international markets, these same incentives apply however, the consumer demand, regulatory oversight and competition may not be as strong as in our domestic market.”

The irony of Netflix’s statement on the threats broadband operators impose on their streaming business is that a few paragraphs prior to this statement, Netflix describes these providers as partners, specifically when it comes to streaming over devices provided by cable and telecommunications companies:

“We currently offer members the ability to receive streaming content through a host of Internet-connected devices, including TVs, digital video players, television set-top boxes and mobile devices. We have agreements with various cable, satellite and telecommunications operators to make our service available through the television set-top boxes of these service providers. We intend to continue to broaden our capability to instantly stream TV shows and movies to other platforms and partners over time.

If we are not successful in maintaining existing and creating new relationships, or if we encounter technological, content licensing or other impediments to delivering our streaming content to our members via these devices, our ability to grow our business could be adversely impacted. Our agreements with our device partners are typically between one and three years in duration and our business could be adversely affected if, upon expiration, a number of our partners do not continue to provide access to our service or are unwilling to do so on terms acceptable to us, which terms may include the degree of accessibility and prominence of our service.

Furthermore, devices are manufactured and sold by entities other than Netflix and while these entities should be responsible for the devices’ performance, the connection between these devices and Netflix may nonetheless result in consumer dissatisfaction toward Netflix and such dissatisfaction could result in claims against us or otherwise adversely impact our business. In addition, technology changes to our streaming functionality may require that partners update their devices. If partners do not update or otherwise modify their devices, our service and our members’ use and enjoyment could be negatively impacted.”

The consumer-centric statement caters to the public net neutrality argument of supposed threats posed by broadband providers but the statement describing broadband providers as partners, in my opinion, captures the reality of the relationship between content providers like Netflix and broadband providers.  The way to look at how a seamless internet service experience is provided is to look at the components necessary for getting digital product to the consumer.  Netflix has to coordinate via contract the prodiuction of content and its distribution.  It has demonstrated that it can and has entered into the necessary agreements with wireline and wireless providers to get its content distributed to consumers.

As a going concern I expect Netflix to take initiative in reducing its costs of delivery but using government regulation as the method for mitigating costs eventually is not in the consumer’s best interest nor in investor best interests.  Broadband providers will pass on the increased costs of traffic delivery and net neutrality regulatory compliance to consumers.  Increased costs of broadband access will cause consumers to look for other cable or wireless platforms, including different tiers of service which will have a negative impact on broadband operator revenues in the longer run.  Netflix may see a temporary bump in profits but as consumers decide to downgrade service, access to Netflix may be one of those services consumers may end up doing without.